• My personal predictions for my final university decisions (made on November 29, 2022) are present in the “predictions” column in Application Status Tracker (Decisions & list)
• Given below are the predictions regarding my university decisions that a friend of mine from Georgia Tech made, after my first three decisions (HKUST EA - conditional offer; MIT EA - deferred; UChicago EA - deferred) were out.
• Everything typed below was typed by him, not me. I simply just copy pasted the texts. (Only the text in grey is me)

Keep in mind Vijit that these percentages will change dramatically with knowing the results of other decisions because it’s hard to determine how AOs will interpret your application.

1. Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)

• Congratulations on the deferral!
• Unfortunately, getting that deferral means your chances drop significantly; very few deferred applicants get admitted in the RD round.
• I’d say 3-7% is a good range.

2. Stanford University

• I liked your essays, but I don’t think your application had a clear, strong spike.
• They tend to go for IV (Intellectual Vitality), and I think your app had plenty of that
• Probably 5-15%

2. California Institute of Technology (Caltech)

• I can see you being a good fit for Caltech, but they place significant emphasis on the essays, and I don’t think yours were knockout stellar.
• I’d estimate 5-15% is reasonable.